How and where to generate high-quality carbon credits
- 7 hours ago
- 4 min read
A key determinant of high-quality carbon credits is whether forests can realistically establish, persist, and retain carbon under future climate conditions.
Afforestation only delivers durable climate impact where present day ecological suitability aligns with long term climate resilience and low disturbance risk.
CarbonPool integrates peer reviewed science on forest potential climate stress, wildfire exposure, and land use constraints into a single feasibility framework (CAFI) that filters out structurally fragile locations early.
This science-based approach shifts afforestation from ambition driven deployment toward risk-informed project design, strengthening carbon permanence, project credibility, and long term market confidence.
The core question: where does afforestation truly make sense?
Planting trees benefits both the climate and the environment, yet the question remains – where should they be planted? Are there specific regions that offer more favorable conditions and lower risks for long-term forest growth?
At CarbonPool, our expert scientists have reviewed the latest scientific research and integrated it into a framework that identifies the most promising locations for afforestation investments. Our geospatial analytics platform is built around four key questions:
CarbonPool addresses this question by integrating the latest global datasets into a single analytical framework that assesses afforestation feasibility before projects are designed, financed, or insured.
Q1. Where are forests suitable today?
We address this question using by the global potential tree coverage map from Bastin et al., 2019, which estimates canopy cover that could naturally exist under current climate conditions. The study found that up to two-thirds of terrestrial land, 8.7 billion hectares, could support forest ecosystems.
Q2. How will future climate risks affect the world’s forests?
A global climate risk assessment for forests by Anderegg et al. 2022 highlights regions where changing temperature and precipitation patterns, combined with climate-sensitive disturbances, such as drought, fire and pests, are expected to threaten forest growth throughout the 21st century. This spatial analysis identifies areas where forest resilience may weaken under future climate conditions, guiding smarter and more durable afforestation investments.
Q3. Which areas are prone to wildfires?
Long-term satellite data observations of global burned area, compiled by Chen et al., 2023, reveal global spatial patterns of fire occurrence by integrating multiple coarse- and high-resolution datasets. Afforestation projects located in fire-prone regions face elevated wildfire risk and higher likelihood of carbon reversals, where sequestered carbon is released back into the atmosphere.
Q4. Are there any areas unsuitable for afforestation?
Many areas that could naturally support new forests are already occupied for agriculture or urban settlements, making them unsuitable for new forest projects. To ensure that afforestation efforts are focused where they can have real impact, we combine population density data from WorldPop with agricultural land use data from NASA to identify and exclude areas where afforestation is not viable.
Introducing the CarbonPool Afforestation Feasibility Index
"Right tree, right place" has long been forestry's guiding principle for successful tree planting. CAFI brings that same logic to the voluntary carbon market at scale. The CarbonPool Afforestation Feasibility Index (CAFI) integrates climate, ecological, and land-use data to pinpoint locations best suited for sustainable afforestation. This data-driven tool combines insights from climate risk models, wildfire patterns, soil characteristics, and global land-use datasets to identify areas with optimal environmental conditions for forest growth and long-term carbon sequestration. By highlighting regions where forests can thrive, remain resilient under future climate scenarios, and avoid conflicts with other land uses, CAFI provides a scientific foundation for directing afforestation efforts toward lasting climate impact.
By focusing purely on biophysical factors - climate, soil, vegetation, and land availability, it offers an objective, science-based framework for assessing ecological feasibility that can be used by various stakeholders. Population density and agricultural land constraints are included to ensure realistic and sustainable site selection.
This CAFI tool equips investors, project developers, and carbon credit buyers, with a clear, evidence-based foundation for dissecting afforestation efforts where they can deliver the greatest climate impact and ecological benefits.
The CAFI map represents a blend of risk and yield, reflecting both the potential for forest growth, as well as the exposure to environmental stresses. It is a synthesis on multiple datasets resulting in insights where forests are most likely to establish, grow and persist under future climatic conditions. It is important to note that the CAFI map is not an insurance price map, and should not be used to indicate financial risk or premium levels (although some data sources used here are used to calculate premiums by our underwriters). Instead, it offers a feasibility assessment relating to environmental hazards and growth potential to help guide afforestation design and investment decisions, with the intention to maximize ecological opportunity and long term climate impact.
For developers and investors, this feasibility layer also serves a practical purpose: it helps build an insurable narrative early in the project lifecycle. By quantifying environmental volatility and identifying regions with durable growth potential, CAFI supports more credible risk assessments, smoother funding negotiations, and stronger long-term confidence in project resilience.
To learn more about CarbonPool’s insurance products, get in touch.
