Why do Forests Disappear? A View From CarbonPool and Chloris Geospatial

3 hours ago
3 min read

CarbonPool’s climate modellers, Dr. Kasia Tokarska de los Santos and Dr. Oleksandr Kit, collaborated with Chloris Geospatial to investigate a key question: Why do forests disappear, and what is driving these losses?

Using 25 years of high-resolution satellite biomass data from Chloris, they analyzed over 70 carbon sequestration projects across the Amazon Basin (including REDD+, IFM and ARR projects). By linking biomass changes to drought, fire, and other drivers, they quantified what’s causing forest carbon losses, and how these risks are evolving over time.

The results show a clear shift. In the early 2000s, most biomass loss was caused by human activity: logging, agriculture, and land conversion. Today, nearly half of forest loss across the Amazon’s carbon projects is due to natural hazards, such as drought and fire, reflecting the growing influence of natural risks and climate change. This shift has far-reaching implications for how nature-based carbon projects are financed and insured.

From science to insuring nature-based carbon projects

The study applies attribution analysis (a statistical approach that differentiates between loss drivers) to satellite data and hazard records from NASA and global drought indices. The goal is straightforward: understand why biomass declines in the Amazon Basin. The use case for this is better measuring, pricing and insuring natural hazards in carbon projects.

CarbonPool's biomass attribution using biomass, forest and drought data to determine what causes losses in forests in Brazil — Attribution analysis - CarbonPool's scientists analysed biomass data from Brazil, and applied various climatic factors such as fire and drought exposure, to find out why Amazon basin's forests have been disappearing.

For us here at CarbonPool, that clarity is game-changing. When risks can be quantified (e.g. distinguishing drought-driven from fire-driven losses), coverage can be priced more precisely and fairly. This matters because it’s exactly this kind of event (a fire, or a drought-driven biomass decline) that triggers a reversal: the moment a project’s stored carbon is lost and issued carbon credits are no longer backed by real removals. Insurance with a more granular pricing structure improves confidence for investors and enables more developers to secure the funding they desperately need to implement these carbon projects.

Building resilience through data

The analysis also highlights how vulnerability varies across forest and project types: afforestation projects in their early stages are sensitive to drought, while many REDD+ projects are prone to large-scale fires.

As climate change amplifies these hazards, data-driven insights are crucial for designing resilient projects - from adjusting planting strategies like species selection, location and irrigation design, to reinforcing firebreaks for projects already underway. Forests are no longer disappearing mainly because of human activity, but increasingly because of natural risks and the planet’s changing climate. Understanding these risks through data is the foundation for managing them effectively – and for reducing reversal risk proactively, not reactively.

Of course, even the most resilient projects face the risk of unexpected losses – this is where CarbonPool’s reversal insurance comes in. By providing a cash equivalent or in-kind compensation sourced through our partner networks, CarbonPool can help developers meet their obligations to compensate for reversed credits, preserving project permanence, safeguarding project viability long-term, and giving investors and buyers confidence in the capital they put at risk.